Choosing the Right Decision Threshold in High-Stakes Diagnostics
Diagnostic tests and systems of many kinds are used in a host of practical settings to assist in making a positive or negative decision about the occurrence of a particular event or the existence of a particular condition. Will an impending storm strike? Is this aircraft unfit to fly? Is that plane intending to attack this ship? Is this nuclear power plant malfunctioning? Is this assembly-line item flawed? Does this patient have the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) virus? Is this person lying? Is this football player using drugs? Will this school (or job) applicant succeed? Will a document so indexed contain the information sought? Does this tax return justify an audit? Is there oil in the ground here? Will the stock market advance today? Will this prisoner vindicate a parole? Are their explosives in this luggage?