ABSTRACT

This chapter deals with apparent inductive probability, presents some main problems of inductive probability, and outlines the 'traditional' arguments involving an application of Inverse Probability for their solution. There are three main cases in which inverse probability is traditionally thought relevant to induction. The first is known as the problem of the probability of causes. The second is the problem of evaluating, by means of the inverse principles of maximum probability and great numbers, the relevance of statistical samples to statistical laws. The third problem concerns the probability of 'future events.' The use of the inverse principles of maximum probability and great numbers for purposes of statistics depends upon whether there occur in 'nature' cases which are in all relevant features analogous to the illustration from games of chance. The mathematical treatment of inverse probability in laplace is intimately connected with philosophical claims and hopes as regards the importance of the calculus of probability.