ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses some aspects of the relation of probability to inductive inference. The most important cases of apparent inductive probability occur in connexion with certain classical problems grouped under the heading of inverse probability. Another type of cases of apparent inductive probability has its root in a tendency to 'transfer' the probability of a prediction to the law of which the prediction in question is a test-condition. The distinction between a mere probability and a chance probability may be useful for the purpose of illuminating the distinctions between a mere relative frequency and a relative frequency in a random sequence. It also illuminates the distinctions between a ratio of mere possibilities and a ratio of equal possibilities, and between a mere degree of belief and a rational degree of belief. The idea of chance has an important relation to the idea of determinism.
