ABSTRACT
In this chapter and in Chapter 9 we take a broader view and examine the long-term development prospects for the entire African continent to the turn of the century. Inevitably, the analysis here is more tentative than in Chapter 7 and also more controversial. Long-term projections are notoriously weak even in developed countries. For Africa, especially at this time of deep crisis, sensible long-term projections are particularly difficult to make. Not only are the available data for Africa much more sparse and weak and inherited economic theories less relevant, but also, and perhaps more importantly, Africa seems to have less control generally over its destiny as its growth relies much more on the vagaries of the weather, the absence of natural disasters (such as drought), and on political situations than in the developed world. As pointed out in Chapter 7, Africa also faces a much more restricted range of effective socioeconomic policies through which to influence the future course of events.
