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IPnad lm ex e r (P Darlomuegrh1t Sev United States, an 9d6t5hea ri n ty dI1n9d6e8x , aAnldl Crop Moisture et al. 1987). On the other hand, it is indeed ra e Yield Moistur eey In 1d9e8x4 ) ( Jionsetheetedv ro er uygyhetanr. oFttooreexxiasmtipnlea , pFo ig rt uiroen1o .5 f th il e lu ssetrcao te usnttrrieesfo in r al. 1991 hat in tiinve th ly enU ew ) in the Philip ni tienddeSxtatth es atisistpgia ne he iSnstiaanngndid elsew anrcdriezaesd in h g ere. Pr epcopAu ipit la re ri ltay tdhreouU gh ntitiesdofSttean te g s, retahteerp th er acnen1t0agpeerarceeanta . f T fe hcu te s d , th beyI1n9d9e5x ) . (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993 ation governments of these larger countries are more drough Atisdiisncculsusd io ed nionfc se li v m er aatliccihnadpitceerssfionrtm hi osnvio to r a in ngdaec st caubsltio sh meedda to dealing with water shortages and have in Part III (Monitoring and e lume actively. For n sm ianlf le ra rsc tr ouucn tu tr riees, toitriesspmoonrde , l a ik lb el eyit th re a -t n lo igqiuceasl ) . inFdo ic reas , csoemepOalriid so ap noo ( f1s9 ev 8e5raarl ly p op wualranr in mge te te ocrh o tuhseuael ntire coun ). scale ly anroem gi aoln ie asltrpyhm en aoymbeenaaff -e cttheedysrienscueltdrfo ro u m gh ltasrgae re -dur A at n io o n th . eDrrdoiusg ti hntgsuu is shuian ll gyrfeeqau tu ir reeaomfidnr im ou ugmhtof is t its that become es ta in b li asthm ed o sp ahnedr ic p er csiirsctulfaotr io n p er piaotdtse rn osftcoontthirneueemfoonr th msotnothbsecoormeyeeasrtsa . bl T is hheedmbaugt then cwaon mo Fnrtohms, sae as p o la nns, n o in r longer. drought impacts is closely related t nitude of teristics of drought ghapveerssp er eicotu iv sei , mtphle ic astp io a n ti s a . lNcahtairoancs tohnesedtuorfattihoenporfectihpei ta etv io e n nt . shTohre ta g fi e o , tih ts eitn im te ing of the should know the probability that drought may simul dr ve-year ( n1s9i7 ty 9 , -a 8n3d ) r ta enge io onuss ly w a it f h fe in cttah ll eiorrbsoervdee ra rs l m an aj dordcervoep lo -p procdounctiinng y th eiosusge ht in northeast Brazil is a good case in point. In gencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it is du arrisngirn ie tsh th oefcyleaas rs, 1979 and 1980 were both drought important for governments to know the chances of a sonal rain e fa lplritnocsiipcaslernasieny ( i s .e e . a , so a significant deficiency regional drought simultaneously affecting agricultura tals were slightl n y ) . a b In ov 1e9n8o1r , m th ael, sbeuat pnreoad rb uyctn iv aittiyonisnotnhew ir hocm ou tnhte ry yaarsew de e p ll e n as deandtjafcoernftooodrltdhreo ug te hmt. po Irnal 19 d 8 is 2 tr , ib tuhtei on ra in re fa slul lte to d t al isnwaegrrei cu ble tu lo ral supplies. In some inst normal, but the temporal distribution of precipitatio wnfdrroomugnhetam rb i y ti gnaattiioonnss , tr iagtneagny ces, a nation’s primary was conducive to crop development. Agricultural drought may have signif o ic ri nmgatyhebel ik to e li ihmopoodrtthfaotodaw im e p re a ct fsow llo e w re e d le ss bya dv th er ese. mTohset se ant regional impa sefvoeurre ‘d drroouugghhtt ’ yyeeaa rs r w fo oord ld w su ipdpelioers . inLtihkeewpirs in e, citphaelgorcac in u -r e re xnpcoer ti onfgdnrco ts ugohntm (1 a9t8 ic 3 ) ago ri fcu th lt e u ra plre im vi poaucststw (M en atgya -f lih ve years, with dra such as occurred during the ENSO event of 1a9t8 ions, aes et al. 1988). (Glantz et al. 1987, Glantz e2-3 cha D ra rco te urg is httiscs. al T so hedair ffer in terms of their spatial nificantly alter a developing cou tnatlr . y’ 1s9a9c1c ) e , ssmtaoy fo si ogd e sh viofltve fr ogm ra dsueaalsloyn , a to ndser as affect ea esgoino . nIsnoefdb lar m ge ayrxism ev uem re idnrt ought from donor governments. as Brazil, China, India, the Unit ceodunS tr tiaetse , e n su si cthy
DOI link for IPnad lm ex e r (P Darlomuegrh1t Sev United States, an 9d6t5hea ri n ty dI1n9d6e8x , aAnldl Crop Moisture et al. 1987). On the other hand, it is indeed ra e Yield Moistur eey In 1d9e8x4 ) ( Jionsetheetedv ro er uygyhetanr. oFttooreexxiasmtipnlea , pFo ig rt uiroen1o .5 f th il e lu ssetrcao te usnttrrieesfo in r al. 1991 hat in tiinve th ly enU ew ) in the Philip ni tienddeSxtatth es atisistpgia ne he iSnstiaanngndid elsew anrcdriezaesd in h g ere. Pr epcopAu ipit la re ri ltay tdhreouU gh ntitiesdofSttean te g s, retahteerp th er acnen1t0agpeerarceeanta . f T fe hcu te s d , th beyI1n9d9e5x ) . (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993 ation governments of these larger countries are more drough Atisdiisncculsusd io ed nionfc se li v m er aatliccihnadpitceerssfionrtm hi osnvio to r a in ngdaec st caubsltio sh meedda to dealing with water shortages and have in Part III (Monitoring and e lume actively. For n sm ianlf le ra rsc tr ouucn tu tr riees, toitriesspmoonrde , l a ik lb el eyit th re a -t n lo igqiuceasl ) . inFdo ic reas , csoemepOalriid so ap noo ( f1s9 ev 8e5raarl ly p op wualranr in mge te te ocrh o tuhseuael ntire coun ). scale ly anroem gi aoln ie asltrpyhm en aoymbeenaaff -e cttheedysrienscueltdrfo ro u m gh ltasrgae re -dur A at n io o n th . eDrrdoiusg ti hntgsuu is shuian ll gyrfeeqau tu ir reeaomfidnr im ou ugmhtof is t its that become es ta in b li asthm ed o sp ahnedr ic p er csiirsctulfaotr io n p er piaotdtse rn osftcoontthirneueemfoonr th msotnothbsecoormeyeeasrtsa . bl T is hheedmbaugt then cwaon mo Fnrtohms, sae as p o la nns, n o in r longer. drought impacts is closely related t nitude of teristics of drought ghapveerssp er eicotu iv sei , mtphle ic astp io a n ti s a . lNcahtairoancs tohnesedtuorfattihoenporfectihpei ta etv io e n nt . shTohre ta g fi e o , tih ts eitn im te ing of the should know the probability that drought may simul dr ve-year ( n1s9i7 ty 9 , -a 8n3d ) r ta enge io onuss ly w a it f h fe in cttah ll eiorrbsoervdee ra rs l m an aj dordcervoep lo -p procdounctiinng y th eiosusge ht in northeast Brazil is a good case in point. In gencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it is du arrisngirn ie tsh th oefcyleaas rs, 1979 and 1980 were both drought important for governments to know the chances of a sonal rain e fa lplritnocsiipcaslernasieny ( i s .e e . a , so a significant deficiency regional drought simultaneously affecting agricultura tals were slightl n y ) . a b In ov 1e9n8o1r , m th ael, sbeuat pnreoad rb uyctn iv aittiyonisnotnhew ir hocm ou tnhte ry yaarsew de e p ll e n as deandtjafcoernftooodrltdhreo ug te hmt. po Irnal 19 d 8 is 2 tr , ib tuhtei on ra in re fa slul lte to d t al isnwaegrrei cu ble tu lo ral supplies. In some inst normal, but the temporal distribution of precipitatio wnfdrroomugnhetam rb i y ti gnaattiioonnss , tr iagtneagny ces, a nation’s primary was conducive to crop development. Agricultural drought may have signif o ic ri nmgatyhebel ik to e li ihmopoodrtthfaotodaw im e p re a ct fsow llo e w re e d le ss bya dv th er ese. mTohset se ant regional impa sefvoeurre ‘d drroouugghhtt ’ yyeeaa rs r w fo oord ld w su ipdpelioers . inLtihkeewpirs in e, citphaelgorcac in u -r e re xnpcoer ti onfgdnrco ts ugohntm (1 a9t8 ic 3 ) ago ri fcu th lt e u ra plre im vi poaucststw (M en atgya -f lih ve years, with dra such as occurred during the ENSO event of 1a9t8 ions, aes et al. 1988). (Glantz et al. 1987, Glantz e2-3 cha D ra rco te urg is httiscs. al T so hedair ffer in terms of their spatial nificantly alter a developing cou tnatlr . y’ 1s9a9c1c ) e , ssmtaoy fo si ogd e sh viofltve fr ogm ra dsueaalsloyn , a to ndser as affect ea esgoino . nIsnoefdb lar m ge ayrxism ev uem re idnrt ought from donor governments. as Brazil, China, India, the Unit ceodunS tr tiaetse , e n su si cthy
IPnad lm ex e r (P Darlomuegrh1t Sev United States, an 9d6t5hea ri n ty dI1n9d6e8x , aAnldl Crop Moisture et al. 1987). On the other hand, it is indeed ra e Yield Moistur eey In 1d9e8x4 ) ( Jionsetheetedv ro er uygyhetanr. oFttooreexxiasmtipnlea , pFo ig rt uiroen1o .5 f th il e lu ssetrcao te usnttrrieesfo in r al. 1991 hat in tiinve th ly enU ew ) in the Philip ni tienddeSxtatth es atisistpgia ne he iSnstiaanngndid elsew anrcdriezaesd in h g ere. Pr epcopAu ipit la re ri ltay tdhreouU gh ntitiesdofSttean te g s, retahteerp th er acnen1t0agpeerarceeanta . f T fe hcu te s d , th beyI1n9d9e5x ) . (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993 ation governments of these larger countries are more drough Atisdiisncculsusd io ed nionfc se li v m er aatliccihnadpitceerssfionrtm hi osnvio to r a in ngdaec st caubsltio sh meedda to dealing with water shortages and have in Part III (Monitoring and e lume actively. For n sm ianlf le ra rsc tr ouucn tu tr riees, toitriesspmoonrde , l a ik lb el eyit th re a -t n lo igqiuceasl ) . inFdo ic reas , csoemepOalriid so ap noo ( f1s9 ev 8e5raarl ly p op wualranr in mge te te ocrh o tuhseuael ntire coun ). scale ly anroem gi aoln ie asltrpyhm en aoymbeenaaff -e cttheedysrienscueltdrfo ro u m gh ltasrgae re -dur A at n io o n th . eDrrdoiusg ti hntgsuu is shuian ll gyrfeeqau tu ir reeaomfidnr im ou ugmhtof is t its that become es ta in b li asthm ed o sp ahnedr ic p er csiirsctulfaotr io n p er piaotdtse rn osftcoontthirneueemfoonr th msotnothbsecoormeyeeasrtsa . bl T is hheedmbaugt then cwaon mo Fnrtohms, sae as p o la nns, n o in r longer. drought impacts is closely related t nitude of teristics of drought ghapveerssp er eicotu iv sei , mtphle ic astp io a n ti s a . lNcahtairoancs tohnesedtuorfattihoenporfectihpei ta etv io e n nt . shTohre ta g fi e o , tih ts eitn im te ing of the should know the probability that drought may simul dr ve-year ( n1s9i7 ty 9 , -a 8n3d ) r ta enge io onuss ly w a it f h fe in cttah ll eiorrbsoervdee ra rs l m an aj dordcervoep lo -p procdounctiinng y th eiosusge ht in northeast Brazil is a good case in point. In gencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it is du arrisngirn ie tsh th oefcyleaas rs, 1979 and 1980 were both drought important for governments to know the chances of a sonal rain e fa lplritnocsiipcaslernasieny ( i s .e e . a , so a significant deficiency regional drought simultaneously affecting agricultura tals were slightl n y ) . a b In ov 1e9n8o1r , m th ael, sbeuat pnreoad rb uyctn iv aittiyonisnotnhew ir hocm ou tnhte ry yaarsew de e p ll e n as deandtjafcoernftooodrltdhreo ug te hmt. po Irnal 19 d 8 is 2 tr , ib tuhtei on ra in re fa slul lte to d t al isnwaegrrei cu ble tu lo ral supplies. In some inst normal, but the temporal distribution of precipitatio wnfdrroomugnhetam rb i y ti gnaattiioonnss , tr iagtneagny ces, a nation’s primary was conducive to crop development. Agricultural drought may have signif o ic ri nmgatyhebel ik to e li ihmopoodrtthfaotodaw im e p re a ct fsow llo e w re e d le ss bya dv th er ese. mTohset se ant regional impa sefvoeurre ‘d drroouugghhtt ’ yyeeaa rs r w fo oord ld w su ipdpelioers . inLtihkeewpirs in e, citphaelgorcac in u -r e re xnpcoer ti onfgdnrco ts ugohntm (1 a9t8 ic 3 ) ago ri fcu th lt e u ra plre im vi poaucststw (M en atgya -f lih ve years, with dra such as occurred during the ENSO event of 1a9t8 ions, aes et al. 1988). (Glantz et al. 1987, Glantz e2-3 cha D ra rco te urg is httiscs. al T so hedair ffer in terms of their spatial nificantly alter a developing cou tnatlr . y’ 1s9a9c1c ) e , ssmtaoy fo si ogd e sh viofltve fr ogm ra dsueaalsloyn , a to ndser as affect ea esgoino . nIsnoefdb lar m ge ayrxism ev uem re idnrt ought from donor governments. as Brazil, China, India, the Unit ceodunS tr tiaetse , e n su si cthy
ABSTRACT