ABSTRACT
Even if - as has been argued on a number of occasions in this book - the consequences proved to be less permanent or far-reaching than those originally anticipated, in many instances it is the exaggerated nature of those anticipated consequences, rather than their limited impact, which should be highlighted. The outcomes may not have been quite those predicted at the time. Thus, it is Third World debt, rather than a New International Economic Order, which is the main legacy of the oil crises for the Third World. For the leading oil exporters, increased oil revenues led to political instability and in some cases economic difficulties, rather than a new era of prosperity and development. In the Middle East, attention shifted from the security of Israel to the future of the Palestinians, but no solution has yet been found that could reconcile the two. Each of these actual outcomes is, however, highly significant in its own right. W hen taken together, par ticularly when combined with the economic changes often associated with 1973, their impact is momentous. The year 1973 has come to be employed as a reference point in time for a shift which, for many, first became apparent in that year, however much it is possible to identify signs of change well before that date. It represents a break point between a postwar era of economic growth, improved standards of living (at least for those in the developed West) and a stable economic regime to one of successive recessions, increasing globalization and the negative impact of unemployment and inflation. For the developing world, the hope of decolonization has given way to mounting debt crises and mounting poverty. This shift is well reflected in the comment by historian Eric Hobsbawm: ‘The history of the twenty years after 1973 is that of a world which has lost its bearings and slid into insta bility and crisis.’5 Robert Lieber, writing a decade after the crisis, argued that ‘In light of the passage of a decade, October 1973 appears as a virtual continental divide, separating a post-World War II gener ation of economic recovery, prosperity and Western unity from an era of stagflation, lost confidence and disarray.’6 In both perception and reality, the year 1973 was a powerful symbol of change, and the oil crisis amply warrants inclusion in this series on historical turning points. Whether there will be another oil crisis, with similar consequences, in the future is a moot point.
