ABSTRACT
This article assesses a number of explanations for vote switching in European Parliament elections. These include the theories of surge and decline and referendum voting, advanced to explain mid-term elections in the US as well as the theory of EP elections as second order national elections. Hypotheses deriving from each theory are set out and a number of tests conducted with data from the 2004 European election study. It concludes that each theory offers something of value without any theory being obviously dominant. We also see some significant differences in patterns of vote switching in new and old member states.
