ABSTRACT
The question why mammoths became extinct has been debated for many years. Explanation is often polarized between either over-hunting or climatic change. Considerable progress has occurred from recent analyses of mammoth bone assemblages (e.g. Haynes 1985, 1986, 1989, 1991), improved understanding of mammoth palaeo-ecology (e.g. Guthrie 1984; Vereshchagin and Baryshnikov 1984) and an increase in the number and quality of absolute dates on mammoth remains (Lister 1991; Stuart 1991). This problem of mammoth extinction is one in which mathematical models may be able to make a significant contribution for several reasons. First there is a well-defined problem to be addressed — what is the critical level of hunting intensity on mammoths to threaten their survival. Second, it is widely acknowledged that modern elephants provide an appropriate analogy for Pleistocene mammoths (Haynes 1986, p. 661) and there has been a considerable amount of work and discussion on elephant population dynamics - including modelling - which further studies can build upon. Third, while the archaeological data concerning mammoth hunting is relatively poor compared to that of modern elephant hunting/poaching, the recent work on mammoth assemblages, such as by Haynes (1985, 1986, 1991) and Soffer (1985, 1991) provides a sound base for developing mathematical models for mammoth exploitation and extinction.
