ABSTRACT
Many of our decisions are based on our expectations regarding the probability of certain events. The questions we ask ourselves in relation to the past, the present and the future often arise from our doubt. What is the likelihood that object A belongs to category B or that process A causes event B? If I buy a lottery ticket, what are the chances of winning the jackpot? What influence will the price of oil have on the interest rate of my mortgage? How will the share prices of companies I have invested in perform in over the next five years? If I buy the latest model of Mercedes will I be able to avoid the need for unscheduled repairs in the next three years?
