ABSTRACT
The theory of long cycles in global politics predicts that the global polity, an emerging property of the world system, is moving, over the long run, toward a higher degree of organization, and that the approaching macro-decision (succession to global leadership and new global agendas) may probably avoid the turmoil of global wars that has marked the previous five cycles. However, some chance remains that in the process of competition for global power, major conflict (or conflicts) of worldwide impact might actually erupt in the next generation. In the light of the theory, this chapter examines conditions and scenarios that might reduce such chances, thus favoring the emergence of a non-global-war-like trajectory for the political process that is part of world system evolution.
