ABSTRACT
Knowledge of the future is a guess: strategy is set in the future: therefore strategy is a guess. This unpromising syllogism is not wholly true since our ideas of the future are based on forecasts which can be defined as ‘informed guesses’. Although we cannot know the future, experience and commonsense based on what happened in similar circumstances in the past will increase our chances of making a reasonably correct forecast. On the other hand, we cannot totally avoid the risk of being completely wrong.
