ABSTRACT
This chapter examines a case study for a unique risk measurement approach designed for environments where the tolerance for measurement complexity is initially low. The approach supports the low complexity measurement by making its execution easier and more transparent. The software which facilitates this standard pseudo-deterministic scenario – a simplified two-component risk measure – is described. The key to its impact on reasoning is the way it offers up greater reasoning functionality in small, accessible step changes from the complexity-intolerant base case. For example, with little extra effort bandwidth measurements allow modelling (with uncertainty) rather than fixed value assessment. Accepting this level of representation invites users into a heuristic reasoning system. Here a more detailed scoring, particularly measuring the organisation’s levels of control, is available within the same clear framework. For modest extra effort, the tool transforms weaker scaling and allows it to become multi-attribute, including an assessment of the levels of knowledge supporting it. In this fully heuristic mode, the tool can be shown to support desirable increases in scoring complexity and rationality mediated by emerging risk appetite. This enhanced validity of reasoning comes as a Trojan horse effect.
