ABSTRACT

This chapter describes current "new" war scenarios and anticipated challenges that form future conflict environments and cascading crises. A key to mitigating future complex crises is to develop an international civilian and military system that will facilitate early identification and management of emerging risks by developing processes that can anticipate and respond to risks. Technologies can combine with natural and other disasters to instigate unpredictable disruptions and violence at any time, any place throughout the world. Hyper-risks describe an event or process that triggers another single or series of unpredictable effects and events with potential to cross borders. Identifying potential regions of future violence requires that international focus be redirected away from highly publicized conflicts toward quieter but no less potentially violent areas. Technological improvements in information, communication, space, and transport networks that facilitate global economic development and cooperation can conversely act as drivers of complex risks.