ABSTRACT

Extreme risk often develops in areas where it comes unaddressed and unnoticed. In a typical case, the scenario of extreme risk events is like a forest fire: it unfolds very quickly and leaves no means of escape. However, there have been some interesting examples when extreme risk was identified early enough, properly communicated and mitigation deployed, which either led to a smaller-than-expected negative impact or resulted in the tail risk not surfacing at all as its drivers had been eliminated by pre-emptive actions. We need to study these cases in order to understand how to address the issues next time to ensure success.