ABSTRACT
If a circular model of the regional order in the Gulf is imagined, the inner circle is shaped by a triangle of states, i.e. Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Although the balance within this triangular system is very fragile, there has been a proven method to uphold it. If one of the mentioned countries gains too much weight, the other two will try to compensate. This fundamental framework of the region’s balance of power has basically not changed since the end of the Second World War with the minor exception of adding the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – in strategic terms – to Saudi Arabia after 1981. Thus, in general, whether con ict or cooperation prevailed between certain regional countries was due to the actual state of the overall balance of the triangular system. After introducing three exemplary phases of the triangular system in operation in the rst part of the analysis, the second part intends to examine the repercussions of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq for the main regional protagonists in particular and the traditional triangle-shaped system in general. Thus, the main purpose will be the veri cation of the hypothesis that the Third Gulf War resulted in a dysfunction of the traditional system.
