ABSTRACT
This chapter defines risk as 'an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective'. It includes both threat and opportunity. People whose personal narratives are notably at odds with reality are said to be delusional, while those with personal narratives starkly and provably at odds with reality are said to be insane. For that person who is planning on winning the lottery, and therefore believes that they do not need to save for retirement, the citation of the odds against that plan coming off is a perfectly appropriate use of risk analysis techniques. The honest and appropriate use of risk management becomes one of testing for robustness in the existing situation or condition of the organization, and a test of the strength of the narratives or structures being used in projecting the outcomes proposed courses of action.
