ABSTRACT

This chapter offers an outline of three scenarios of plausible future developments of the European Union (EU) counterterrorism policy. These include a return to the purely intergovernmental cooperation based on the TREVI model; a major supranational leap forward towards the creation of something akin to United States of Europe; and an arguable middle ground represented by the calls for, and a few specific outlines of, a new EU counterterrorism strategy. The analysis of these three scenarios is complemented by a succinct overview of the likely future changes to EU counterterrorism policy due to the eventual adoption of the Lisbon Treaty. The EU was originally devised as a three-pillar structure that was governed by two principal treaties: the Treaty establishing the European Community (TEC) and the Treaty on European Union (TEU). The first pillar of the EU was the supranational European Community; second was the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and third was the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA).