ABSTRACT

Examining each part of the triad separately, the chapter explores the multiple manifestations of hostility and chance. For many analysts of strategic affairs, the conclusion of the Cold War gave way to an era of 'new wars', which we still fail to understand. Although much of the recent strategic and security studies literature focuses on how war is waged, on how war's character has been revolutionized, this chapter cuts deeper, exploring war at its interactive micro-foundations. Examining each part of the triad separately, it explores the multiple manifestations of hostility and chance, before then assessing the influence of these elements on the policies of the belligerents as the war evolved. The focus of the chapter is on the centrality of the 'Trinity' in relation to the rest of Clausewitzian theory a pre-requisite if we are to be able to accurately analyse the importance of each part of the Trinitarian formula.