ABSTRACT

Trade appears among the identified transmission channels through which Chinese growth is assumed to affect the economy of developing countries and Madagascar has had a trade relation with China for 46 years. This chapter examines the Malagasy gaining and losing sectors in the context of China increasing foreign trade. After its independence, Madagascar plunged into a socialist political regime. Economic relations with foreign countries were limited and were concentrated on trade with France. The chapter analyzes the possible impacts of Chinese growth through the trade channel on Madagascar's economy. It then discusses two different methodological tools: a descriptive analysis and a calculable general equilibrium model (CGEM). Finally, in order to avoid dependence on some sectors and to decrease the risks of economic shocks, the Malagasy State should aim at the diversification of the economic exchanges carried out with China.