ABSTRACT
Energy transitions are complex, long-term societal processes that tackle the status quo, not only of a country’s energy system. Further social, economic and political power shifts are required to move from fossil fuels towards clean and sustainable energy sources. Many Southeast Asian countries stand at the crossroads concerning their future energy systems. Expanding coal or doing business as usual to meet additional demand due to rapid economic development would determine the energy systems for decades to come, with severely environmentally harmful technological lock-ins. Promoting energy transitions towards renewables with a focus on decentralized small-scale applications allows a much more environmentally friendly path, with additional benefits for human development and local communities, but without putting economic development at risk. The reality of Southeast Asia’s development stands in sharp contrast to this vision. Fossil fuels dominate the energy systems, incentives for renewables cannot easily be implemented, and powerful interest groups prevent changes of the status quo. Various energy outlooks even predict that the share of renewables in Southeast Asia’s energy mix could actually decrease until 2030. The Philippines and Indonesia stand as two examples of the challenge to an energy transition in one of the most vibrant and most rapidly developing regions in the world. Wrapping up the lessons learnt from both countries, especially for practitioners in the field of renewable energy development, insights from a comparative perspective cluster around four major themes: (1) renewable energy development in general, (2) the role of multi-level governance frameworks for renewables, (3) the meaning of power resources and capacities, and (4) the limits to and potential of development cooperation.
