ABSTRACT
Yet, our understanding of the relationships among these highly correlated concepts and forces is often contentious because the effects of their interaction and the direction of causality are hard to sort out. The long-term, or deep drivers, of each concept also often differ from the more immediate pressures for change. Moreover, many additional variables shape their evolution and interaction, creating the possibility that relationships are spurious (the result of third variables). For example, changing demographic and economic structures (including variation in dependence on raw materials exports) can greatly affect the extent of security, the capacity, and the inclusiveness of governments, and the level of human wellbeing. So, too, can deep historical and culturally related patterns of social interaction and the extent of social fragmentation in a society. And not least, neighbors and the broader global system often affect domestic developments.
