ABSTRACT
Although socialism may have no future, this does not necessarily mean that revolutions do not. Nevertheless, a number of scholars are now beginning to ask the question, Is the age of revolutions over? For many of them, the answer is yes. Jeff Goodwin (2001, 2003) sees revolutions as unlikely in the years ahead primarily because of the wave of democratization that has swept over much of the less-developed world in the past two decades (Sanderson, 2009). Why should democratization reduce the probability of revolution? For one thing, it ameliorates (even if it does not eliminate) social conflict, and it institutionalizes that conflict by redirecting it into socially legitimate channels. If people are unhappy with their rulers, they recognize that they have an opportunity to get rid of them in the next election. Democratic modes of government also provide people with the opportunity to engage in popular protests that often allow them to win concessions from economic and political elites. Goodwin’s conclusion is that “the ballot box has been the coffin of revolutionaries” (2003:67). Indeed, the evidence gives strong support to this view. As Goodwin notes, no revolution has ever overthrown a democratic regime. Revolutions are most likely to occur against brutal neopatrimonial dictatorships or exclusionary colonial regimes, and these regimes are becoming a relative rarity in the world of the twenty-first century.
