ABSTRACT
It considers the nearby as well as the farther off future, up until the
end of the century (which, at this point, is more accurately regarded as
medium than long term). It also considers only ’’probable" events, even
though it allows for a broad range of confidence (more strictly, "nonconfi-
dence”) regarding what is probable. The next chapter, by contrast, focuses
on the more or less improbable events-"contingencies"— that have the
potential for producing problems should the events actually occur. Be
cause it is relatively futile to try to estimate the probability of such
contingencies very far ahead, the horizon for chapter 9 is "short-term"—
to approximately 1985.
