ABSTRACT
Intuitive prediction techniques are undoubtedly the most common forecasting method. Extrapolative techniques have many virtues. They are simple and cheap to use and are often more accurate than sophisticated methods. The key to making extrapolative forecasts is having a good base of data and understanding the pattern within it. Numerous situations that require policy analysis, and therefore forecasting, do not appear to involve linear phenomena. Virtually all rational decisions are made on the basis of some model, some construct of how a subsystem of the world functions. Policy analysts can adopt some important principles from the researched methods to use when time and resources are limited. For complex policy problems, the use of cross-impact analysis involves a computer and fairly elaborate data that are not quickly generated. Intuitive forecasts are required of both the conditional and unconditional probabilities of future events.
