ABSTRACT
The previous paper describing work by Reardon dealt with the application of 1–0 techniques to calculate historical direct and indirect energy use coefficients and “technology change” and “final demand” components. The work by Almon illustrates a forecasting application. This involves two new factors–a forecast by an economic model (instead of the use of historical 1–0 data) and projections of the direct energy use coefficients or their equivalents. In the previous paper values for the direct use coefficients were derived for three years but no functional form was fitted to these values. For forecasting purposes some functional form(s) must be fitted to the direct use coefficients or their equivalents. Further refinement and extension of the model and data described is being considered.
Dr. Almon’s presentation was based on Research Report No. U of the Interindustry Forecasting Project, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, “Forecasts of U.S. Petroleum Demand, 1972–1980: An Interindustry Analysis” by David Belzer and Clopper Almon (October 1972). By agreement with Dr. Almon, the portions of the report most relevant to energy modeling, along with some examples, have been extracted and with minor editing are presented below. The report itself contains much more information and detail than is given here.
