ABSTRACT
To understand intelligence failure, one would have to be able to answer a series of questions. Why do states or non-state actors attempt to surprise their opponents to achieve strategic effect? Why do they often succeed? How does surprise affect the outcomes of strategic interactions, competitions in which the behavior of both sides determines the outcome? Why do some surprise initiatives succeed spectacularly, only to end in disaster for the side that initially benefited from surprise? Why do instances of intelligence failure and “strategic surprise” seem so closely linked not only to deterrence failure, but overall strategic failure from the victim’s perspective? If we can explain surprise, can we prevent it from occurring?
