ABSTRACT
YES: The impact of CBRN terrorism – a general perspective
Natividad Carpintero-Santamaría
This part of the chapter argues that WMD terrorism is a likely prospect in the future. It starts with the premise that non-state actor incidents with chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) agents have, in fact, already occurred. In her assessment, such weapons can be easily procured by terrorist organisations given the loose state grip on facilities in some countries and the smuggling and theft of such materials as well as the nexus with organised crime. While not yet on a large scale, such weapons can be relatively easily manipulated by non-state agents and could be used in tactical attacks which would have devastating social consequences.
NO: WMD terrorism: the prospects
John Mueller
This section of the chapter argues that there is little likelihood of WMD terrorism in the future, in spite of states continuing to fear it. Specifically, it is argued that states, no matter how extremist they themselves might be, would never decide to hand over nuclear material to terrorists, for fear of becoming potential victims themselves. Moreover, manufacturing nuclear devices would constitute too complex an endeavour for a non-state actor to undertake. Similarly, the author argues that making and disseminating chemical or biological weapons would involve a series of technological and organisational hurdles which would prevent their effective use by any terrorist group.
