ABSTRACT
YES: The enduring al-Qaeda threat: a network perspective
Jeffrey B. Cozzens and Magnus Ranstorp
With respect to the continuing relevance of al-Qaeda, this section of the chapter answers in the affirmative, arguing that al-Qaeda (AQ) remains a functional network with real capabilities, adaptability, structures of continuity, the ability to reproduce itself in the face of external pressure and a list of tangible achievements. The authors show how the Internet has been crucial for giving the AQ network global reach and enhanced its ability to facilitate activities. Consequently, AQ remains a potent threat to the West, not least because of its ability to attack in unexpected ways.
NO: Al-Qaeda: a diminishing threat
Lee Jarvis
This section of the chapter shows how al-Qaeda’s threat is limited at three levels: the inner circle, sympathisers sharing AQ’s ideology, and groups loosely affiliated with al-Qaeda. The author points out, among other things, the significant losses incurred by al-Qaeda as a consequence of the US-led counterterrorism campaign, the loss of its Afghan sanctuary and the death of its leader and a number of other leaders killed by targeted assassinations. The section further shows the effectiveness of initiatives taken locally by other states and its decrease in popularity and the inability to recruit new members as well as internal fractures.
