ABSTRACT
In the Middle East as in much of the rest of the world, the demographic story of the mid-twentieth century was rapid population growth, which placed a heavy burden on economies. That is coming to an end, in no small part because of social changes, especially the modest progress toward empowering women. The Middle East is now making a “demographic transition” that offers the prospect of twin “demographic dividends” if governments can create the right environment. First, there is the opportunity that comes from much of the population being of working age, with a low burden of caring for the young and the elderly; then, in coming decades, there is the opportunity of increased capital from the savings of middle-aged workers preparing for retirement. But these opportunities could turn into dangers if insufficient jobs are created for the youth flooding into the labor markets and if not enough is saved for what will within a few decades be a rapidly growing elderly population. Central to both challenges will be how women’s social role evolves, especially women’s employment opportunities outside the home.
