ABSTRACT
Offshore wind resources along the US coast is to be successfully developed, the hurricane risk to wind turbines should be analyzed and understood. Hurricanes strike the US coast only infrequently, so statistical analysis based on historical data is problematic. Here we model the risk by simulating thousands of years of hurricane activity using a model based on numerical weather techniques and analyzing their effects on simulated offshore wind turbines. Wind turbines can be damaged or destroyed by winds stronger than their design limit, and the probability of damage increases sharply with wind speed. For each hurricane, the maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed at each turbine location is calculated. Hurricanes are unlikely to simultaneously damage enough offshore wind power to significantly affect the adequacy of the electricity supply, even in the higher-risk regions. The risks can be mitigated by strengthening turbine designs or ensuring that turbines can yaw to track the wind direction even if grid power is lost.
