ABSTRACT
Even good information on the past, though, would not be sufficient to provide us with a reasonable indication of what is likely to happen in the future. Even with out any policy innovations or changes in behavior, the evolution of the epidemic is still impossible to understand without an appropriate mathematical model. The nor mal dynamics of the epidemic are just too complex. Two developments, however,
make forecasting even more difficult. First, government policies in sub-Saharan Africa are changing. New programs that provide antiretroviral medications and education about risky sexual behavior are becoming ever more common. Second, in many sub-Saharan African countries, the educational composition of the popu lation has been changing and is expected to continue to change in the future, and educational attainment interacts with these new government programs.
