ABSTRACT
A major issue today is whether globalization of the world’s labour, capital and product markets, together with rapid economic growth in India and China, will have an adverse effect on workers in the US and other advanced countries. Simulations of different scenarios using the Cambridge-Alphametrics Model of the World Economy indicate that, at a bloc-disaggregated level, there are severe supply-side constraints relating particularly to natural resources (energy and raw materials) that thwart the expansionary demand effects of fast growth in India and China. This analysis is based on long-term trends in the world economy prior to the current global financial crisis. However, for the sake of completeness, it also comments on the likely implications of this crisis for the USA and other advanced country workers.
