ABSTRACT
The chapter presents the results of research conducted by the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organisation of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IGSO PAS) on: a) demographic and economic demand and internal gravitation as factors in the planning of the transport system; b) transport accessibility (isochrone-based and potential; including simulation of the HSR investment in Poland); c) the status quo of local spatial planning in the HSR corridor (Y route: Warsaw – Lodz – Nowe Skalmierzyce – Poznan/Wroclaw). Gravitation analysis can be useful in assessing both existing and planned transport routes, including high-speed railways. It has been harnessed for the design of optimal and most efficient intercity networks in terms of potential synergy effects. Such analysis could look at the currently planned HSR network, as well as its expanded and supplementary versions.
The potential accessibility analysis was based on the simulation of the effects of a Y HSR variant performed for the purposes of the Polish 2020 Transport Development Strategy document. The baseline for these assessment was the situation in mid-2010. According to the results, the “Y” HSR line would produce a wide-ranging improvement in spatial accessibility of Poland. This would cover nearly all of Poland’s territory, especially in the vicinity of the connected metropolises and across western Poland where the Dolnosląskie Voivodeship and Kalisz stand to gain the most. What is characteristic for this project is that it improves accessibility in places seemingly far away from the new line, such as the Bydgoszcz-Torun built-up areas and in the Opolskie Voivodeship. This means that the two areas will benefit from the new line (in services to other major Polish cities) via Poznan and Wroclaw, respectively. The expansion of the network effect to other Polish regions would require good integration with the traditional railway system, especially in the south and south-east, including the integration of the Central Trunk Line.
The scale of current pressure on property is illustrated by the proportion of farmland earmarked for conversion into development land in local development plans. Along the HSR segment Warsaw-Lodz this indicator is much higher than the national average, which is explained by suburbanisation, especially near the national capital. It seems that the new HSR line has not become yet a determining factor in local planning. In the future, this may prove damaging for the efficiency and cost of the project when it finally materialises. The scale of hidden costs resulting from an inadequate spatial planning system is considerable and requires extended research to provide more accurate estimations.
