ABSTRACT
This chapter argues that the mid-2010s migration and refugee crisis became a critical test for democracy and political stability in many European countries as well as a major challenge to the European Union. Using the model of the expectations-politics-policy gap, it finds a disconnect between public preferences and expectations for EU-level action, and polarized national politics and inadequate EU policy instruments. The party politics and electoral outcomes in many states, including Austria, Germany, and France, were upended by responses to the refugee crisis. Populist parties made significant gains against centrist parties as public opinion turned increasingly anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic, especially in the wake of Islamist terror attacks. These parties’ play on national interests, fear, and insecurity paradoxically spurred voting in the opposite direction of the declared preferences of many citizens for greater EU-level management. It also fed into historical reluctance on the part of Member States to transfer their policymaking prerogatives to the EU, even though national systems were quickly overwhelmed by the massive 2015–16 influx. The EU has emerged from the crisis weaker in its unity, reputation, and normative power.
