ABSTRACT
In comparison to climate change, the consequences of urban growth on future flood risk are considerable if not larger. Yet, many areas around the world have witnessed unprecedented urban growth which lead to the appearance of megacities hosting populations of more than 10 million inhabitants. The assessment of riverine flooding therefore primarily focused on the development of the urban flood extent as a function of urban growth, flood depth distribution in the urban flood extent and the proportionality of the projected urban growth within and outside the flood extent. In case of the developed urban growth scenarios, population-change adjusted growth rates could be applied that represent a lower, mean and upper urbanisation rate. With a few exceptions, the growth models for the respective cities have been calibrated using data that covers a period of about 20 years 1990-2010.
