ABSTRACT
In recent years considerable attention has been directed by Civil Engineers to the problem of determining the survival probability of a structure under stochastic loading, with or without random structural element strength variations. Excluding from the discussion the dynamical response problems, where random process theory must be employed, the remaining (quasi-static) problems may be divided into constant strength and deteriorating strength cases. The first of these has been addressed using the tools of second moment theory (the Reliability Index or P index), and transformation to standardised Normal variates[1]. An exposition of the theory is given in a recent monograph by Madsen, Krenk and Lind[2]. Methodologies for dealing with the system aspect of such reliability problems have been proposed by Thoft-Christensen and Murotsu[3] and by others[4][5].
