ABSTRACT
Application of the quantitative probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) concept should complement in various human-in-the-loop (HITL) situations, whenever feasible and possible, the existing vehicular psychology practices, which are typically qualitative a posteriori statistical assessments. A PRA approach based on the double-exponential probability distribution function (DEPDF) is suggested as a suitable quantitative technique for assessing the probability of the human nonfailure in an off-normal flight situation. The (typically long-term) human capacity factor (HCF) is introduced in this distribution and considered along with the elevated short-term mental workload (MWL) that the human (pilot) has to cope with in a highly off-normal (emergency) situation. It is concluded that the developed formalisms, after trustworthy input data are obtained (using, e.g., flight simulators, or applying Delphi method, or otherwise) might be applicable even beyond the considered situation and even beyond the vehicular domain.
