ABSTRACT

By employing quantifiable and measurable ways of assessing the role and significance of various critical uncertainties and treating a human-in-the-loop (HITL) as a part, often the most crucial part, of a complex man-instrumentation-equipment-vehicle-environment system, one could improve dramatically the state of the art in assuring aerospace mission success and operational safety. The human and the equipment-and-instrumentation performance often contribute jointly to the outcome and safety of an aerospace mission or an off-normal situation. But nobody and nothing is perfect: the difference between highly reliable humans, objects, products, or missions and insufficiently reliable ones is 'merely' in the level of the never-zero probability of their failure; therefore, application of the broad and consistent probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and probabilistic predictive modeling (PPM) provides a natural, effective, and physically meaningful way to improve the success of aerospace missions and safety in the air and in the outer space.