ABSTRACT
All rail transport forecasts are based on a kind of rail demand model. A model can be defined as a human effort (through a simplified representation) to understand, explain and foresee the evolution of a physical, human or social phenomenon. It tries to investigate whether a causal interrelationship can be found between the phenomenon under study (e.g. number of high-speed train passengers between London and Paris) and the parameters affecting it (year of the study, statistical data, cost of rail transport and of competing modes, travel times by rail and competing modes, quality of service, Gross Domestic Product, etc.) Once a causal relationship is established and the statistical and logical validity of the model is checked, then the model can be used for the forecast of future rail demand.
