ABSTRACT
Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology has been developed to overcome the limitations of the traditional Event Tree approach by taking timing of events explicitly into account through communicating with the system model that describes its dynamic behavior in event sequence construction. In addition, more rigorously accounting for process/hardware/software/human interactions, this capability allows including recoveries within the sequence analysis. Furthermore, particularly for long term scenarios, DET would be able to model multiple failures and recoveries for a given system with this capability. From probabilistic point of view, modeling multiple failures and recoveries introduces a major challenge since failure and recovery distributions for a given system can be correlated. Use of a multidimensional distribution is proposed to address this challenge.
