ABSTRACT
Quantitative risk assessment supports decision-making processes in an increasing variety of contexts. Within the domain of environmental decision-making, the spatial distribution of impacts, vulnerabilities and consequences associated to different risk-mitigation alternatives calls for a different framework, i.e. spatial multi-criteria risk analysis. In this paper, we propose the combined use of a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach and Geographic Information Systems to integrate uncertainty and model probabilities into an overall risk map. The research aims at testing the operability of the integration between Bayesian modelling and spatial analysis in the context of spatial risk processes for resource allocation. To this end, we applied the model on a case study dealing with tanker oil spill risk in the Mediterranean Sea. The innovative contribution of the study stems from both the context of application point of view and the use of Bayesian modelling to calculate not only probabilities but an overall spatial risk measure.
