ABSTRACT
Power outage forecasting for severe events such as hurricanes provides valuable information to those managing power systems and those dependent on electric power such as other utilities and individuals in society. A number of different approaches to power outage forecasting have been developed. This paper provides an overview of different approaches with a focus on how these approaches work in practice. It then focuses on the role and representation of uncertainty in power outage forecasts. What are the sources of uncertainty? How do different outage forecasting approaches handle these sources of uncertainty? How is uncertainty represented in the resulting forecasts?
