chapter  11
The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger 2017
A New Methodology and Ranking of Countries on Forecasted Risks
ByDavid A. Backer, Jacob Aronson, Paul K. Huth
Pages 41

This chapter presents the latest results of the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, ranking countries around the world according to their estimated risk of experiencing significant political instability during the three-year period of 2015-2017. The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger (PCIL) consists of country-level assessments of the likelihood of observing phenomena with significant potential to disrupt governmental functions, including the ability to exercise meaningful authority and to deliver core services. The Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at the University of Maryland developed the original version of the PCIL in 2008. Though the PCIL functioned well over several years, certain concerns arose in the wake of the Arab Spring about the reliability of the methodology. The original PCIL had several strengths. The methodology reflected a synthesis of leading research on conceptualizing, explaining, and forecasting political instability.