ABSTRACT
In light of the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the chapter analyses whether a similar scenario could arise in Kazakhstan. The chapter examines the development of the current political regime and the emergence of the domestic ruling elite, paying special attention to their interests and role in the presidential power vertical, since independence in 1991. It then evaluates the influence of political, economic and geopolitical factors on the Kazakhstani political regime. On the basis of this, it concludes that a number of elements could create the conditions for a ‘color revolution’ or ‘Ukrainian scenario’: increasing discontent among young and well-educated state functionaries, weakened domestic economic growth since the global economic crises, low global oil prices and sanctions against Russia (Kazakhstan’s main trading partner), increasing radicalism of ethnic Russian and Kazakh nationalism, and the state repression against the independent media, the opposition parties and NGOs.
