ABSTRACT
This chapter briefly describes development until 2030 assuming that behaviour sticks to historic patterns: what is often referred to as ' business as usual' using the preliminary model. The Global Interindustry Forecasting System (GINFORS) model has been developed for a global analysis of the economic–environmental interdependencies as a tool for concrete policy planning. The model combines econometric–statistical analysis with input–output analysis embedded in a complete macroeconomic framework. The link between economic developments in the countries is given by international trade, which is the result of global competition in deep sectoral disaggregation. Resource prices are assumed to develop with the global overall price level. GINFORS is based on experiences gained through the development of the global energy–economy–environment model COMPASS. The scenario bases population development, economic growth, energy consumption and emission development on national and international projections, in particular on the reference scenario of the World Energy Outlook.
