ABSTRACT
The surmising forum must be thought of as a true institution, to which experts from very different fields will bring special forecasts so that they may be combined into more general forecasts. The most immediate, obvious task of the forecaster in the social sciences is to speculate about the consequences of technological progress: this is very necessary, but shortly the author shall indicate how insufficient this would be. Everybody agrees that the great acceleration of change is a result of technological progress. Nobody will deny the influence of technical progress on education. A technological innovation has necessary effects, but it does not follow that all the effects for which it provides an opportunity have the innovation as a unique and profound cause. In simulation with a computer, behaviors are assumed; in simulation by human agents, the players discover their own reactions to situations. Simulation techniques can be helpful because the problem is a matter of operational research applied to structures.
