ABSTRACT
Recapping some history, US fertility rates fell steadily from the colonial period through the Great Depression of 1929-1936. White non-Hispanic fertility rebounded from 1.4 to 1.7 by 1990. The connection between prosperity and fertility in America is evident in all sectors. Fertility rates soon took on a very marked bimodal distribution: low in the middle class and substantially higher among the poor. Expectations were rising in the lower class in the 1960s because President John F. Kennedy had begun, and President Lyndon Johnson continued, making the war on poverty a national priority. The account borrows from economist Richard Easterlin, who is the foremost interpreter of cycles in US fertility. Demographer Francine Blau is one who expects immigration to affect the US fertility rate: "In the case of high fertility source countries, immigrant women's fertility is expected to initially exceed their native-born counterparts."
