ABSTRACT
Certain kinds of developments, though rife with consequence for economics, politics, and strategy, are intrinsically difficult to anticipate. Wars, revolutions, and economic panics are typical cases in point. Yet there are also important sorts of developments that are less subject to historical caprice or political calculation, more likely to unfold in a regular manner over a relatively long time, and thus inherently easier to envision in advance. Population change is one of these.
