ABSTRACT

This chapter analyses the core factors and the impact path of aviation fuel demand in China and conducts a structural decomposition analysis of aviation fuel cost changes and the increase in the main aviation enterprises' business profits. It confirms that the significant rise in China's aviation fuel demand because of increasing air services demand is more than offset by higher aviation fuel efficiency. The chapter provides a structural decomposition analysis of aviation fuel consumption. It analyzes in detail the structural decomposition on aviation fuel efficiency, total air transport turnover and aviation fuel costs. The chapter analyzes and forecasts aviation fuel demand, aviation transport total turnover and aviation fuel efficiency using a univariate and multivariate analysis. Based on the forecasts, aviation fuel demand is expected to exceed 48 million tons in 2020, which will put great pressure on traditional aviation fuel supply security.