ABSTRACT
The experts, researchers and policy makers, as well as the public in general, seem to alternate between moods of pessimism and optimism, anxiety and complacency, about the world food situation and outlook. Frequently, short-term food shortages or surpluses, or movements in food prices, influence the perception of the future world food situation. During the world food crisis of 1973, marked by a sudden and substantial rise in food prices that resulted in acute distress - and even starvation and famine in several low-income developing countries - there was great apprehension about the future food supply. The year 1973 was seen by many as a harbinger of things to come, signalling the emergence of a long-run world food shortage. During the late 1970s and 1980s, as the food situation improved, food prices fell. Faced with an abundance, the food-exporting developed countries resorted to measures to curtail production or at least to reduce price support and subsidy programmes. Optimism about the future food situation was revived. This assessment was further reinforced by the declining trend in the real prices of wheat and rice over the past several decades.
